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Fooled , by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, by Nassim Taleb
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Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the bestselling sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. 'One of the smartest books of all time' Fortune 'An iconoclastic tour de force ...nothing escapes his Exocets' Evening Standard 'Brilliant' John Kay 'Excellent and thought-provoking ...an entertaining book' Financial Times 'Wall Street's principal dissident' Malcolm Gladwell
- Sales Rank: #1292343 in Books
- Published on: 2007-05-03
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 7.80" h x .83" w x 5.08" l,
- Binding: Paperback
- 368 pages
Amazon.com Review
If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards
From Publishers Weekly
In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.
Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.
From Booklist
Taleb is a "quant," or mathematical trader, and an expert on financial derivatives who has made a name for himself in investing circles as a voluble critic of popular theories and conventional wisdom. He is also the author of Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (1996). Taleb is fluent in seven languages and a reader of classical literature, an avocation that readily manifests itself in this meandering discourse on the roles of probability, luck, and risk in the markets and in life. Taleb examines how and why the attempt to determine cause and effect is continually hampered by random occurrences and our emotional responses to them. He freely shares his ideas and opinions, finding insights in the funeral of Jackie Onassis, B. F. Skinner's experiments on pigeons, Solon's warning, Karl Popper's work, George Soros, Darwinism, the O. J. Simpson trial, Pascal's wager, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, birthdays, taxicabs, and especially the works of ancient Greek philosophers. David Rouse
Copyright � American Library Association. All rights reserved
Most helpful customer reviews
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Still the Best of Taleb
By Alex Bush
Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. In multiple ways. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to weave a fantastically engaging and entertaining book out of what could very easily be a dry and technical topic is just icing in the cake.
I've read all four of Taleb's books and Fooled By Randomness still stands out as my favorite. Although Black Swan is still the most popular, and most controversial, Fooled in many ways is the most practical, as it's the most general and therefore most widely applicable. Everyone should deeply understand the survivorship and hindsight biases, as well as the difference between conditional and unconditional probability.
That being said, it's often hard to determine whether the heart of the book is the ideas (which to someone such as myself who has only a Stats 101 background in probability are almost always revelation-inducing) or the author. I can't stress how much I learned from this book that has nothing to do with probability or statistics, just random asides from an erudite and meandering mind. Regardless of your background (or even your interest in probability) you will probable learn some fascinating and/or useful tidbit from Fooled, and probably a whole lot more.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Will change your perspective on the role of luck in your success
By Amazon Customer
Fooled by randomness is a book that will change your perspective about life success and chance, if you are in a profession where making predictions on highly uncertain fields is your daily bread, this book will help you realize that sometimes success is mostly a product of luck, not to say that all people involved on economics, stock markets, big CEOs, sales people, etc. are purely successful by luck, but sometimes they (and I include myself) give greater credit for ability and knowledge more than luck, this situation expose you to a great danger: a big failure event (or the black swan as described by Nassim)
Is far better to be aware of this problem with randomness and take all possible precautions to avoid a big catastrophe (this really is what counts in terms of managing a good streak of good chance). With basic and logical examples Taleb explains really good (or at least makes you think about it) how the human brain tries to match great events due to expertise and not luck (but always on hindsight) and bad luck to randomness. If you have some profession where success is not as straight forward related as a dentist maybe (his favorite example on the book) or something not as deterministic but instead more economic or social statistical involved role, reading Fooled by Randomness will change your perspective and help you to be prepared for the black swan event
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Less generalizable than Black Swan but still helpful for understanding scope, scale, and context of information
By Reid Wegner
Useful and insightful perspectives from Taleb on the subject he is famous for, but as a book it is more scattered than "Black Swan." The general theme of the book is randomness, but he jumps from topic to topic, e.g. options trading to historical narrative to behavior psychology to journalism, back to trading, back to journalism, etc.
Although the book does try to be relevant to non-financial market professions and decisions, it feels to me much less generalizable than "Black Swan." He even uses a term like "randomness professions" or something (I can't remember) to distinguish those that are from those that aren't, but gives few examples outside of financial markets, and I suspect most non-traders will feel like the book isn't quite written for them. (I think a lot of people like the book just because he dumps on financial professionals, and there is recent popular sentiment that those guys aren't as smart as they think they are and deserve to be taken down a peg or two.)
Anyway, as a non-trader I found Taleb's ideas in this book broadened the way I think about how information comes to me, what it represents, what is missing from it, and how I make decisions based on it.
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